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But the people from the north still need leaders to organise them. Many of their leaders have been detained along with Yingluck too. Out of the 125 under detention..... about 100 of them are from the red camp.
That may be so however they have no lack of talent to take over those detained.
Try detain 50% of PAP mp what you think will happen
Yes I think u r right bro... fast hand fast leg
Curfew should be until this Sunday.
This coup could get uglier. Its a war of succession and a U$40 billion inheritance at stake. Prayuth is the 大伯公 he lured everyone to the talks but rounded them all in one fell swoop. If all goes to plan when he retires in September he will get a big fat reward. Read this analysis issued yesterday by the Siam Intelligence Unit - better than any water cooler gossip and see for your self whats going on the next few days.
What’s Happened
A coup by The Army Chief, General Prayuth Chan-ocha.
Political leaders from both side are ‘in control/custody’ by the army. The list includes Suthep Thaugsuban (PDRC leader), Abhisit Vejjajiva (Ex-PM and opposition leader), key ministers in Pheu Thai government, 5 key red shirt leaders.
Some red shirt leaders throughout the country are in custody.
Acting PM Niwatthamrong Boonsongpaisan is missing. As we know currently, he is not in the army control.
2007 Constitution is now defunct. The Cabinet is gone.
The junta keep the senate and the justice courts.
All TV stations are under controlled. Normal programs are replaced by military graphic.
What We Don’t Know Yet
Whereabout of Niwatthamrong, also Yingluck Shinawatra.
It seems that Shinawatra family members fled the kingdom. No confirmation yet.
Nothing from Thaksin yet.
Analysis We already warned the ‘bad scenario’ in our previous analysis and now it happens.
It seems that from the conservatives’ viewpoint, the stake is too high so they can not lose this war at all cost. That’s why this coup happens. The martial law on 20th May is a testbed for today’s coup. We think the coup has been planned long before and the martial law is just a ‘lead signal’ for the eventual coup.
The big picture of this coup is ‘conservative forces consolidate their power’. The red shirts movement is too dangerous for the ‘sake of the Kingdom’ and needs to be gotten rid of. The ‘hard liner’ generals now run the show and we should expect the bad outcome.
What to Expect
This list is just our quick analysis from today’s information. We are very pessimistic right now for the situation.
We should see the new PM soon (within the next 3-4 days). The senate will act for the full parliament and nominate a new PM.
Possible PM candidates are General Prawit Wongsuwan, ex-Army chief and Palakorn Suwanrath, a Privy Councilor. Both are closed to the palace.
The new junta government will run the country for 1-2 years. Possibly longer than previous Surayud Chulanont government (2006-2007).
New Constitution will be drafted, we might call it 2015 Constitution. It will be more draconian than 2007 Constitution.
PDRC, Democrat Party, and all anti-Pheu Thai leaders will be released in the next few days. Pheu Thai and red leaders will be in custody longer.
The short term (1-3 months) outcome will be peaceful but it’s temporary peace.
The longer term (3-6 months and more) looks bad. Red Shirts will go underground. We might see some unrests.
The situation after that depends on the structure of the new Constitution and the call for ‘true democratic’ general election.
If the Constitution is undemocratic and the election is postponed indefinitely, the country (especially the junta government) will face the insurgency in North and Northeastern which is the red shirts’ bases.
The worst possible scenario is a chronic civil war. Same as Thailand’s ongoing Deep South Insurgency.
pii chai, you now provide FR and Thai analysis na.
when can hold my hand go to Soi Yodsak and do some analysis ka
As of now our girls planning for the event..ie food ..costumes..and erotic games.
A lot depends on the turnout so if you planning to come do not postpone because of the coup. It promises to be a lot of fun.
pii chai, you now provide FR and Thai analysis na.
when can hold my hand go to Soi Yodsak and do some analysis ka
Cut and paste. I not so geng or have insider info like some people here to do analysis on thai politics and looks like the whole village has woken up....
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Drive to Yangon? Umm..sounds like an adventure. Not even sure if its possible.
I trying to find out if I can drive a Thai registered car to Singapore since I have a visa.
Ya drive to yagon, it's possible. But driving a thai registered car to SG, not sure. So far I only seen Malaysian registered plate in Sg. If you find out already do share if it's possible or not.
Ya drive to yagon, it's possible. But driving a thai registered car to SG, not sure. So far I only seen Malaysian registered plate in Sg. If you find out already do share if it's possible or not.
Most people I asked said its not possible. Sinkie cannot drive non sinkie car in Singapore.
Its just a post I read somewhere that if you have a work permit or visa from Thailand..and car is registered under yr name..its possible with LTA approval...subject to maximum 28 calender days in a year. Next trip to singapore I will go LTA and ask myself.
Even if its not possible I think its still worth to drive to JB and park there. Entering spore needs additional insurance and many fees to pay like ERP ..VEP..SMD..etc.
Anyway..would be nice to meet up w you and have a teh tarik sometime.
Anyway
Cut and paste. I not so geng or have insider info like some people here to do analysis on thai politics and looks like the whole village has woken up....
Anyway the logical sinkie way to do this is just to make a bet !
I will throw in a free beer and a free ST barfine for the winner of the golden question...'When will this coup end !'..
Feel free to bet and announce your own bet ! My prize valid only 1 month from date coup ends !!
its possible with LTA approval...subject to maximum 28 calender days in a year. Next trip to singapore I will go LTA and ask myself.
Anyway..would be nice to meet up w you and have a teh tarik sometime.
Oh with LTA aprroval, seems quite hassle. Ya better verify the LTA. But again like you mentioned, with the ERP, and now nearly every where can't use parking coupon, better take plane, but the adventure isn't there..
Ya, it's been awhile since I went to Patts. Totally lost touch with Patts. I'll try to plan, and we can have teh tarik.
Oh with LTA aprroval, seems quite hassle. Ya better verify the LTA. But again like you mentioned, with the ERP, and now nearly every where can't use parking coupon, better take plane, but the adventure isn't there..
Ya, it's been awhile since I went to Patts. Totally lost touch with Patts. I'll try to plan, and we can have teh tarik.
Umm good..if you come I make Kambing soup..how that sound?
555 wah kambing soup. Once I make my plan, I'll let you know.
Let's have kambing soup with roti john. 5555
Sure can do...today my lunch is durian w rice add milk and santan w a bit of salt and sugar. Kampong style..you should see all the girls and farangs squirming looking at me eat.
24-05-2014, 05:44 PM
